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I think the main point of this is not that bitcoin is going to crash soon, the point is that the price is purely based on speculation. Thats something worth giggling. Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. Its inevitable as brick and mortar banks and finance will become extinct! Margin of Saving Will it get me my money faster? Youve made a great profit, and you can play with that $28k. Maybe then it will go away. So you did. In the US, Pesos are worthless in transactions and cost money to convert to US dollars. LennStar The question is if one is worth $15k? Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? Bitcoin is extremely risky, but it is not dumb and its value is also based on consensus. Because it is backed by an entity that will ensure its value is honored and, to at least a small degree, those that are responsible for it are also accountable to the citizens of the US. All that the US has done since 2008, is hit the ball further and further down the road while at the same time blowing it more and more with air (read Quantitative Easing). For just $2 you could be a multimillionaire. Are you for real? Video compression tech. The general trend seems to be accusing me of not doing enough research, even after I dug into this stuff pretty deeply for a long, long time. They cant use these gift cards. That means over the next 2 years, the Shiller P/E will be rolling out some of the terrible earnings numbers from the global financial crisis. But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. It is too inefficient to scale to become a global currency, too volatile to be practical as a global currency, and there is a cap to how many bitcoins can be made therefore no reason to ever spend your bitcoin. As long as there are people who insist on spending more than they produce there will be debt and as long as there is debt, there will be national debt. It also has technological demand. *pop*. Personally, I think this article shows that Mr Adeney has had his blog hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ;). Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. This fiat economy itself is only 40 year old. So owning gold is not insane at a reasonable price. Why should humanity be slaves to Banks and a few elites who control money supply? I dont know if stock prices will go down. Een of andere blog . That is what people said 1999/2000 for the dotcom bubble. But a collective insanity has sprouted around the new field of cryptocurrencies, causing a totally irrational worldwide gold rush. Looking back, I couldve traded a couple bucks of electricity as a college student for tens of thousands of dollars today. They always do.. Given that China has a lot of bitcoin mines and electricity is produced by coal in China mostly thats a lot of unnecessary CO2 that just got bumped in the atmosphere. GPU mining is dead. You are probably right that it has some more room to grow, but speculating on the perfect exit point is no more an investment strategy than a trip to Vegas is. They are speculating like crazy which has lead the government to try and protect their people through the regulation of crypto trading. Again, only in nominal terms. I guess Petes point here is that block chain protocol has benefits but bitcoin is stupid. (As Ronnie Chieng says, What IS it!?!?). :), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/941500121564332032, farmecologist January 3, 2018, 8:06 am. Personally I fail to see the reference between Failhypecoins and retails challenges with shopping online. MMM has been writing quality PF content for years. January 17, 2018, 9:00 am, bitcoin is down 50% in the past three weeks. Holy Shit! is the only reasonable reaction. So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Just think never having to get ripped off for currency exchange10 years from now. And always the fail to mention in your article that XXX XXX is in the works to address this very problem.. That could be securely moving value around, but could be many other things. Dan, I am not angry when someone says they dont want to invest in it. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. Ms. Frugal Asian Finance As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! I agree this is a subpar post on MMM, and I am sad to see that he doesnt yet get it when it comes to decentralized currency networks. The reason is that its not an investment. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.. Buying some bitcoin and other coins could be rewarding in the long term. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. January 4, 2018, 7:36 am. I have accepted lifes nudge and opened up several pages of your blog and am working through them right after this, The Vigilante Remember Altavista, Boo, Aol and Geocities, should I have bought those you mean? January 2, 2018, 7:11 pm. Im not sure why the author is so angry at people who speculate. Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. MMM, you cannot call Bitcoin Stupid and then go tangentially into an Utopian discourse. There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. I believe this is currently the second longest expansion in US history. But if that is the case, then it is far less irrational than are dollar bills, especially over long periods of time. Higher energy usage in China means that the nasty, killing coal plants stay online longer. If that is the case, their values are strictly driven by speculative bidding, making them the worst sort of investment. I have seen several bubbles grow and then burst, and one thing you learn is that an actual bubble rises like crazy and then totally pops. Some people like owning pretty jewelry. BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. I dont invest in Bitcoin, but Ive had this sob story in the back of my mind about how I missed out when I decided sometime pre-2010 to NOT mine Bitcoin. My investment strategy will continue to be more couch-potato and real-estate focused. Good comments Jon. And so my joker friend, how many Fiat currencies exist on this planet, have you even counted? For newer cryptocurrencies, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. And what about physical forms of cash for private sales? The internet is awesome, but once in a while a bubble arises and this time virtual currencies is about to pop! Good post. When you make this kind of purchase, which you should never do, you arespeculating,which is not a useful activity. Its like when preppers talk about arming themselves and building shelters out in the desert filled with canned goods. Im not sure there is suggestion from MMM that cryptocurrencies are fraudulent or indeed even a scam. I think its more likely that youre helping launder money acquired in IRS scams and other criminal activity. Sounds like a bubble to me. This bubble is going to break, the environmental waste is awful, and CNBC legitimizing this as investing with ticket symbols must stop. It is called being informed about reality.. I agree w jon. Andre Kostolany. The water can be stored behind a dam for weeks, months, sometimes *years* if the dam is big enough. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. They dont tend to go longer than that. Its also dispatchable, which means the generator power output be turned on and off extremely rapidly to meet need. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Theres nothing fraudulent about Bitcoin its mass hysteria driving demand. I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. It is, in other words, a valid store of value with properties that support it as a choice. I understand this is an MMM forum but i mean come on.. you have to recognize that managed risk is a part of building wealth. US is just one country in this big bad world, and not vice versa! I dont buy that much stuff. Under certain tax-related assumptions dividend policy is irrelevant to the value of a firm says one of the Modigliani Miller theorems. If youre one of these credible people, please do so in the comments or in a blog post on Medium that we can all read. And then follow that thread all the way back to the fact that the future blockchain(s) all of these future uses are built on are going to be continuations of the most valuable blockchains of today because valuable blockchains are a prerequisite for the data integrity required for high value use cases. A whole Bitcoin? Which happened 47 years ago, not 40. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. Please, Alex Anton is not shouting. Do you also believe that you have a prayer of creating an internationally recognized currency that simply skips out on national and international financial accounting laws? Were human, so human. 15 Replies 10705 Views March 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM . Hence, he advocates value investing not speculation. Now I can forward it to friends and family who are chattering about it while Iwell, while I call it stupid. More computing power leads to higher data integrity which creates more value which attracts more computing power, and so on. When the supply of foolish speculators dries up, the value evaporates often very quickly. Even if they made a hundred trillion dollars next year, you wouldnt see any of it unless you sold your stock to someone willing to pay a higher price for it (or they started paying dividends). January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. If it goes poorly you might not a few months off your FIRE date but if it goes very well it could knock off a year. Mr. Frugal Toque The wealth you store in the form of gold or silver will usually buy the same commodities in the future when converted back into currency. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. This results in a silent crash, and a loss in purchasing power for stock holderseven if the nominal price of stocks remains the same. My mother in law collected beanie babies and I had the pleasure of looking up their worth this Christmas back hometheyre about $5 each and I will owe eBay 10% + shipping. I totally agree that Cryptocurrency is not a long term investment strategy, diversifying is absolutely key. This is why bitcoin was created in the first place. There is a reason that central banks own most of the wotlds gold. that would be a PE ratio of 1. Well so they can monitor everything and where all the funds go. Qaddafi was taken out because of the Dinar. In Ancient Rome and today one ounce of gold bought a very nice dress suit. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. Second: Human nature actually tolerates a *lot* of corruption in exchange to stability, so I dont think well be switching over to this science fair project any time soon. Its absolutely astounding how the general (pretty darn) intelligent public cant tell the difference between an real asset vs an investment. Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! I say its value is nil. The people that buy into bitcoin will be hurting enough financially. No problem! A digital advertising ecosystem to fund it all. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. I agree Jay. But yes: Bitcoin is silly at current prices. babysitting, lawn mowing, snow shoveling, etc..) So, how is Bitcoin replacing that? Rick Gardner You are right in one sense, this is one use you could put your fiat paper money to where Bitcoin cannot help! As the market cap of cryptocurrencies grow, the volatility as a percent will decrease. Will it help me achieve my financial dreams quicker? The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. For the most part, far from perfect, I am very thankful that it works. Even then, like with investing in a new company, youre taking substantial risks. Which is fine, but this trust-less nature of Bitcoin is what the early adopters valued. > On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. Mr. Money Mustache @mrmoneymustache Follow @mrmoneymustache There's nothing wrong with blockchain technology - as I said in the article. Thats what I have been saying guys. Im selling because I agree that cryptocurrencies have entered the bubble phase, but when it comes to theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. Smoking brings zero value to society, only net negative. A wisened Mustachian looks for long term, steady gains, and their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed. I'm a software engineer and my career was in cryptography and network security. Why not one of the other 1500 cryptocurrencies? Just the same with crypto-currencies today. You have to start thinking several steps ahead at once, like trying to imagine twitch.com in 1990. Love this blog and agree with most of your opinions on Bitcoin. But thats just the software side (Blockchain). It is already in Beta testing and will be released this year. It has now grown quite a bit, of course. November 20, 2018, 11:56 am. All of the wealth and jobs being created already by Crypto has changed and benefitted the lives of millions. We dont need to prey on their consumerism also. But, just because you believe your paper fiat is going to survive does not mean you put an article with a header calling it stupid! WantNotToWantNot Fiat currency was implemented in 1933 in the USA. January 4, 2018, 9:20 am. And even with dividend paying stock, most people arent really relying on the dividend to turn a profit. Bitcoin was the first block chain, and this guy Satoshi whoever he is, has invented something that is as big as what Einstein did in the 20th century with Atomic Physics. That was called new economy. Thank you! They always do. The reason internet destroys industries (?? destroy? Apparently the friend had doubled his money. Then the mining ist just looking up data in this table. We dont buy average cars or average homes we buy older cars, and smaller homes to cut costs and live a modest life. It would have sounded like science fiction, and even if he accepted it was possible he still wouldnt understand why anyone would want such a thing. , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? Most people cant afford to drop huge amounts in crypto at one time, so you have college kids paying $2-3 every week buying $50 worth of BTC. If you think you are hardcore enough to handle Maximum Mustache, feel free to start at the first article and read your way up to the present using the links at the bottom of each article. I believe MMM has missed the point completely in his rant above. Reply. So in order to have immutability, we need decentralization. Why do I trust the dollar? Its very informative and answers many questions you raise, 2. Couldnt have said it any better myself. November 20, 2018, 12:00 pm, so other storage is NOT needed sorry, my phone likes to randomly delete words, Tor Kristen Haugen Vijay, what MMM is saying is that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin cannot presently operate as currencies. Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. Fiat currency has neither. Youre not going to get rich by collecting metals, but you might stay rich with them. Humans are conditioned for shortcuts in all aspects of life. An investment is something that has intrinsic value that is, it would be worth owning from a financial perspective,even if you could never sell it. You can give up that wet dream right now. I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. I always remember one sound arguments on investing that goes something like if they need to over explain the product and their business model, then Im not buying it.. Id like to address each. BigTasty1212 Bitcoin is mined using ASICs, not nVidias graphics cards. A lot of jobs today exists only to oversee things. 3. There is some very interesting technology being developed in the cryptocurrency space right now, so be careful about throwing out the baby with the bath water. But sometimes they do. Brent Weaver If you MUST put way too much money in bitcoins, you need your own offline, hardware wallet. There is no reliable way to track or trace paper. Except for the chances of winning the Powerball vs a worthwhile project with (already) proven potential and mainstream bank adoption like Ripple that was mentioned knocking multiple years from your FIRE date are not the same. The root of crypto is decentralization and independence from government that empowers people. Because theyve talked about doing away with the penny for YEARS now and yet, I still have pennies in my pocket. youre supposed to pay taxes on gains in crypto too . It seems like youre advocating for scenario #2. I imagine that we are both smiling at this point. This is bitcoin's intrinsic value and the longer it exists, the more apparent it will be. Anyway, if your argument were correctwhich it partially isthen you of all people should be against fiat money systems like the US dollar in its current form. People went off on many rants back when a single tulip bulb could have the same value as a ocean going ship, just as back then we had many people who couldnt stop talking about how great tulip bulbs are and why we should all be buying them. Im more inclined to trust contracts that cannot be broken. The pure votality and surge should be a warning for the average investor. Think about how many leaps needed to be made for someone in 1990 to believe such a thing was possible. But its likely just down the toilet. Would yours? It is 110% of your total and entire GDP, and that is just your Federal Debt. Bingo, so far you are the only one that stated the true value of any nation backed currency, notably the USD. John Tucker Given that he vouched for Blockchain, but not for the hype over Bitcoin itself, you seem to be overreacting. It doesnt mean they are in bubbles at any price. Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Once you make this separation in your mind, you can see that Blockchain is a simply a nifty new software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas Bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. I can only assume the grief the internet trolls will give you on this as they defend their virtual Bitcoin pile. No where have I read South Koreans advocating replacing their currency with a Crypto equivalent. So instead we are going to own Bitcoins that are so volatile that you will go insane? TO_Ont At least theyre cute and the grand kids like them! There is a related problem that Bitcoin transactions are too slow and too expensive to be practical. I advise you look at the 10-year PE ratio. The timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right! It remains to be seen. You would be one of those skeptics who in 1992 would have said Internet has no future because its present bandwidth cannot even handle an attachment over email! Yeah, Ive discussed the mining with my friend from NVidia. The need for a cryptocurrency is very real. Ive yet to find anyone who has. Silicon Valley is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all ideas of finance that have come before. Its definitely useful for me to hear opposing views though and Im hungry for intelligent people to discuss it. Well, SOMEONE has to keep the bankers & wealthy rich, right??? I agree Cyptocurrencies will be powerful in the future, but I dont think that will be in bitcoin. Its not about bitcoin anymore and unfortunately people still dont realize that. (a Case Study), https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614, https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/, https://globalnews.ca/news/3977745/ethereum-blockchain-canada-nrc/, https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-zIbVEjVpQ, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania, http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. Hearing about every move Bitcoin makes is already more annoying than hearing about the DJIA ever referred to(when we have the S&P500). Not a repeatable strategy though, Im sure. More? But I get that most of these things arent problems that need solving in the first world. WHY HAVE YOU NOT INVESTED YET!?!?! meep er January 2, 2018, 6:46 pm. True. Im a younger kid so I definitely only heard of Betamax. Just one, just $2, and its (hopefully) only a sliver of your net worth. Bitcoin is a universal currency and is not here to just replace your USD alone! If I add your state debt and unfunded liabilities, US is BANKRUPT! I was excited to get in on the IFCO (Initial Fingernail Clipping Offering) but the price had already shot up while I was reading. No govt is just going to let the ability to control their economy be taken away from them. (Now, as you mentioned, it is most likely just speculation driven by greed). I was so sad that I missed out again ;). When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. You mixed that up. The poorest in Sub-Saharan Africa earns the same money that you sitting in Manhattan, NY do. So, how is Bitcoin better or different? Glorkvorn So right there you can scratch off any use of blockchain as pointless if it doesnt benefit from immutability. So, we usually get $100 to $200 worth of stuff all at once. also remember while the market cap is $230bn at least 20% of coins are lost from the early years. how is this different than a crypto? Mr. Money Mustache is. One way or another, at some point, the cycle will end, and the cycle will start again. Are you sure Amazon pays someone in unusable (to them) gift cards? It certainly is for day traders in short term. Because reasons, technology and internet! Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. However, investing in Bitcoin now seems more along the lines of investing in a BBS in the early 90s. (namely, cultural values and living conditions which have been shown through study to increase our subjective wellbeing scores, or Science if you want a shorthand for it). You can still live a good/great life within that system, but the fact remains the debt-based economy is like The Matrix, and we are the batteries that power it. I think we can all agree a cure for cancer is immensely valuable to society (blockchain may or may not be, we still have to see), however, how much is a Cancer-Pill worth? January 15, 2018, 9:02 am. When everyone hypes something as the solution for everything it is going to be bad. 3. This video epitomizes the Bitcoin market right now. Andy Stow The second point is also critical: Bitcoin is only valuable if it truly becomes a critical world currency. Few elites who control money supply it as a college student for tens thousands! Truly becomes a critical world currency make this kind of purchase, which you never. Entire GDP, and not vice versa believe this is why Bitcoin was created in the first.... My joker friend, how many leaps needed to be more couch-potato and real-estate focused usage in China that... Hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ; ) you arespeculating, which means the power! Is currently the second longest expansion in US history we dont need to prey on their also. Never do, you need your own offline, hardware wallet opinions Bitcoin! Which creates more value which attracts more computing power leads to higher data integrity which creates value. 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